外文翻譯--外商直接投資和出口—基于越南的經(jīng)驗(yàn) （節(jié)選）

1、<p>　　中文3795字，2170單詞，11400英文字符</p><p>　　本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯</p><p>　　外文題目： Foreign direct investment and exports </p><p>　　出 處： Economics of Transition

2、 </p><p>　　作 者： Nguyen Thanh Xuan and Yuqing Xing </p><p>　　Foreign direct investment and exports</p><p>　　The experiences of Vietnam</p><p&g

3、t;　　Nguyen Thanh Xuan* and Yuqing Xing</p><p><b>　　Abstract</b></p><p>　　We examined the implementation statuses of a total of 5,919 foreign direct investment (FDI) projects approved

4、 by the Vietnamese Ministry of Planning and Investment since 1988, and compiled a database of actually disbursed FDI in Vietnam. The database covers FDI flows into Vietnam from 23 countries from 1990 to 2004. Using the d

5、ata, we analyzed the impact of FDI on the exports of Vietnam with gravity equations. The empirical results demonstrate that FDI is one of the major factors driving the rap</p><p>　　Keywords: FDI, exports, gr

6、avity, Vietnam.</p><p>　　Introduction</p><p>　　As the largest and fastest growing economy in Indochina, Vietnam has been very successful in attracting FDI and has experienced rapid growth in exp

7、orts. The experience of Vietnam in the past two decades offers an interesting case for analyzing the causal relationship between FDI and exports. Does FDI in transitional economies promote their exports? Could transition

8、al economies become export platforms for multinational companies? The analysis on the experience of Vietnam will enhance our understa</p><p>　　For conducting such research, it is essential to have reliable F

9、DI data. All officially published FDI data by the Vietnamese government, however, are based on approved projects, which may not be implemented for various reasons. Some studies have found that the actual implementation r

10、ate of approved projects has been very low. For instance, Kokko and Zejan (1996) showed that only 14 – 30 percent of registered FDI had been implemented; Fujita (2005) also mentioned that, from 1988 to 1998 only 17 p<

11、/p><p>　　The remainder of the paper proceeds as follows. Section 2 gives a brief review on FDI and exports in Vietnam. It discusses major policy issues and presents stylized facts on FDI and exports. Section 3

12、reviews the major literature on FDI export nexus and gravity models. Section 4 specifies the augmented gravity model employed in the paper and analyzes the results of the estimations. Finally, Section 5 summarizes the ma

13、jor findings of the paper and policy implications.</p><p>　　FDI and exports in Vietnam</p><p>　　Since 1990, the country has observed a huge influx of FDI. The officially registered FDI inflows r

14、ose more than 30 times from US$189.7 million to their peak of US$5.6 billion in 1996. The actually disbursed FDI also grew rapidly, rising from US$277.6 million to US$3.9 billion in 1995. Because of the Asian financial c

15、risis, FDI inflows fell substantially in the following years until 1999. In 2000, both the officially registered and actually disbursed FDI started to rise again. The actually disbur</p><p>　　Four sectors (o

16、il and heavy industry, light industry, agriculture and fishery) together contribute all of the exports of Vietnam. Table 2 outlines the exports and FDI distribution over these four sectors from 1990 to 2004. By 2004, lig

17、ht industry became the number one exporting sector. It accounted for 41 percent of the total exports, 15 percentage points higher than in 1990. During the same period, FDI flowing into the sector also rose substantially.

18、 It surged from US$11 million in 1990 to its </p><p>　　Literature review</p><p>　　The academic research on the relationship between FDI and trade initially focused on whether these two flows are

19、 complements or substitutes. Using the standard Heckscher–Ohlin, Mundell (1957) showed that capital movement could be a perfect substitute for trade. Vernon’s product cycle model also suggested a substitutional relations

20、hip between FDI and trade (Vernon, 1966). Dunning (1977) used firm organization theory to discuss whether MNEs should serve a foreign market through exports or local pr</p><p>　　Gravity models have been appl

21、ied in various empirical researches on trade. In addition to GDP and distance, Anderson and van Wincoop (2001) incorporated ‘dispersion indexes’, which include the price levels of the exporting and importing countries, r

22、elative distance and several other dummies (such as sharing a borderline, having a common language and belonging to the same free trade zone) into the conventional gravity model, improving the performance of the gravity

23、equation substantially. McCallu</p><p>　　An augmented gravity model for exports and FDI</p><p>　　Due to the limitations of the data, we are unable to distinguish whether the growth of the export

24、s is due to the direct or indirect effect of FDI. The following empirical analysis basically focuses on the aggregated effect of FDI on Vietnam’s exports. The analytical framework is the standard gravity model. According

25、 to the gravity model, the export capacity of a country is primarily determined by its GDP,</p><p>　　and export demand is determined by the GDP of importing countries. If a country has a large stock of expor

26、t-oriented FDI, its export capacity would be higher than that of a country which has the same level of GDP but a lower stock of export-oriented FDI. Further, if the objective of FDI is mainly to serve the market of the F

27、DI source country, FDI will raise exports from the host country to the FDI source country without an increase in the income of the FDI source country, as the exports produced</p><p>　　Following the basic str

28、ucture of the conventional gravity models, we define a gravity model with FDI as:</p><p>　　LnEXvjt=β0+β1Lnγvt+β2Lnγjt+β3LnFDIjv(t-1)+β4REvjt+β5dvj+β6δ</p><p>　　+β7FTAA+β8FTAUS+εvjt</p>&l

29、t;p>　　where Y denotes real GDP and EXVj the exports from Vietnam to its trading partner j and FDIjV indicates country j’s direct investment in Vietnam. Simply including FDIjV into the conventional gravity model will i

30、nduce the problem of endogeneity as there exists a dual causality between FDI and GDP. To avoid the problem of endogeneity, we use one period lagged FDIjV in our estimation. RXVj represents the real bilateral exchange ra

31、te between the Vietnamese Dong and the currency of its trading partne</p><p>　　The aggregated FDI data officially published by the Vietnamese Ministry of Planning and Investment are based on registered proje

32、cts rather than actually disbursed FDI. For estimating actually disbursed FDI in Vietnam by countries, we searched the information and the statuses of a total of 5,919 FDI projects approved by the Ministry of Planning an

33、d Investment since 1988. Based on the information from those projects, we compiled a dataset, which comprises annually disbursed</p><p>　　FDI of 23 major trading partners3 of Vietnam from 1990 to 2004. In 20

34、04, those 23 trading partners together accounted for 94.6 percent of actually disbursed FDI in Vietnam, 83.9 percent of its imports and 84.6 percent of its exports.</p><p>　　We estimated the model with both

35、the pooled regression and random affects methods. Table 4 reports all the estimates. With respect to the estimates of the random effects model, the coefficient of FDI is 0.13 and significant at 1 percent, suggesting that

36、 FDI in Vietnam contributed significantly to the increase of the country’s exports and that Vietnam exports relatively more to the countries which invest more in Vietnam. In the regression model, both exports and FDI are

37、 in the form of logarithms.</p><p>　　Concluding remarks</p><p>　　Following the implementation of the reform, the Vietnamese economy experienced sustained high growth. The liberalization of trade

38、 and FDI greatly enhanced the country’s exports and FDI inflows. Using an augmented gravity model, this paper investigated to what extent FDI in Vietnam contributed to the fast expansion of Vietnamese exports. The analys

39、is is based on Vietnam’s exports to 23 FDI source countries from 1990 to 2004. The actually disbursed FDI employed in the study is estimated by the aut</p><p>　　Moreover, the empirical analysis finds that th

40、e devaluation of the Dong, incomes of Vietnam’s trading countries and its own income are also important determinants of the country’s exports. It is noteworthy to mention that the export elasticity to Vietnam’s GDP is 3.

41、21, much higher than that to the income of its trading partners, demonstrating that growing export capacity and the competitiveness of Vietnamese products perform a critical role in enhancing its exports. We found no evi

42、dence demonstr</p><p>　　Up to now, all of the officially published data on FDI in Vietnam have been based on approved projects rather than actually implemented ones. These data cannot be used as an accurate

43、measure of FDI activities in the country. To rigorously evaluate the contribution and impact of FDI on the Vietnamese economy, it is essential to have a dataset which reflects actual direct foreign investments. Estimatin

44、g actually disbursed FDI from 23 countries for the period of 1990–2004 is one of the important en</p><p><b>　　譯 文：</b></p><p>　　外商直接投資和出口—基于越南的經(jīng)驗(yàn)</p><p><b>　　摘要&

45、lt;/b></p><p>　　我們查閱了經(jīng)越南外交部批準(zhǔn)的正在實(shí)施的5,919項(xiàng)外商直接投資的項(xiàng)目。越南數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)匯集了自1988年以來(lái)的實(shí)際外商直接投資。這些流入越南的外商直接投資來(lái)自23個(gè)國(guó)家從1990年到2004年。根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù),分析了外商直接投資對(duì)越南出口的重力方程。實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明外商直接投資是推動(dòng)越南出口增長(zhǎng)的主要的因素。它有利于對(duì)外商直接投資的來(lái)源國(guó)家擴(kuò)大出口。實(shí)證分析特別是表明,在增加了1%的外商直

46、接投資的流入會(huì)對(duì)這些國(guó)家增加0.13%的出口額。</p><p><b>　　一、簡(jiǎn)介</b></p><p>　　作為世界上最大和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)最快的地區(qū)，位于中南半島的越南非常成功地吸引了外商直接投資，并且出口也快速增長(zhǎng)。在過(guò)去的二十年里，越南的經(jīng)歷作為一個(gè)案例分析了外商直接投資和出口的因果關(guān)系。外商直接投資在過(guò)渡經(jīng)濟(jì)中是否促進(jìn)產(chǎn)品的出口?過(guò)渡經(jīng)濟(jì)能否成為跨國(guó)公司的出口

47、平臺(tái)?分析越南的經(jīng)驗(yàn)將提高我們的理解在外商直接投資作為促進(jìn)出口的角色方面，而且轉(zhuǎn)軌國(guó)家吸引外商直接投資是作為一種手段,實(shí)現(xiàn)出口-導(dǎo)向的產(chǎn)業(yè)化。特別的,我們將使用重力模型分析越南的外商直接投資對(duì)出口有多大的促進(jìn)作用。</p><p>　　進(jìn)行這樣的研究，必須有可靠的外商直接投資數(shù)據(jù)。所有越南官方公布的外商直接投資數(shù)據(jù)是基于核準(zhǔn)的項(xiàng)目，因各種原因不能實(shí)施。一些研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，這些核準(zhǔn)項(xiàng)目的實(shí)際利用率非常低。例如，科克和擇安

48、（1996年）提出，只有14%到30%的外商直接投資已經(jīng)落實(shí);藤田（2005年）也提到，從1988年至1998年僅實(shí)施來(lái)自新加坡17%的已批準(zhǔn)的項(xiàng)目。要嚴(yán)格審核外商直接投資與出口的因果關(guān)系，必須有實(shí)際利用的外商直接投資，而不是批準(zhǔn)的外商直接投資。要估計(jì)實(shí)際利用外商直接投資，我們研究了自1988年以來(lái)計(jì)劃與投資部批準(zhǔn)的5919項(xiàng)目，并檢查了這些項(xiàng)目的實(shí)施狀態(tài)，然后構(gòu)建了一個(gè)實(shí)際利用外商直接投資的數(shù)據(jù)集合。該數(shù)據(jù)集合包括在1990-2004

49、年期間越南實(shí)際利用23個(gè)的國(guó)家的外國(guó)直接投資數(shù)據(jù)。在文中該數(shù)據(jù)集是對(duì)越南的經(jīng)濟(jì)的研究有重大的貢獻(xiàn)。我們的實(shí)證分析基于該數(shù)據(jù)集。</p><p>　　文章其余內(nèi)容如下。第2部分簡(jiǎn)要地介紹了越南的外商直接投資和出口。它闡述了外商直接投資和出口的重大的政策問(wèn)題和典型事例。第3部分主要是回顧了FDI和出口的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)及重力模型。第4部分檢驗(yàn)重力模型和分析研究的結(jié)果。第5部分根據(jù)研究結(jié)果總結(jié)全文并提出相關(guān)影響的政策。<

50、/p><p>　　二、越南的外商直接投資和出口</p><p>　　自1990年以來(lái)，越南已大量涌入外商直接投資。正式登記流入的外商直接投資上升了30倍，從1億8970萬(wàn)美元到1996年的56億美元的高峰。實(shí)際引進(jìn)的外商直接投資也增長(zhǎng)迅速，從2億7760萬(wàn)美元上升至1995年的39億美元。由于亞洲金融危機(jī)，外商直接投資流入量下降。在接下來(lái)的幾年大幅下降直到1999年。2000年，無(wú)論是正式注冊(cè)

51、外商直接投資還是實(shí)際引進(jìn)得開(kāi)始回升。實(shí)際引進(jìn)的外商直接投資這一年再次超過(guò)10億美元大關(guān)，達(dá)到12億美元。</p><p>　　越南促進(jìn)出口的主要有四個(gè)部門（石油和重工業(yè)，輕工業(yè)，農(nóng)業(yè)和漁業(yè)）。到2004年，輕工業(yè)成為頭號(hào)出口部門。它占總數(shù)的41%，比1990年的出口額高出15個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。在同一時(shí)期，該部門的外商直接投資流入量也大幅上升。它從1990年的1100萬(wàn)美元飆升1996年的5億4000萬(wàn)美元的高峰。輕工行業(yè)

52、中的外商直接投資的份額從1990年的僅僅4%增加至2004年的28%，使其成為第二大的部門，引進(jìn)的外商直接投資累計(jì)31億美元。石油和重工業(yè)也是吸引外商直接投資數(shù)額最大的四個(gè)部門之一。從1990年到2004年，部門的外商直接投資額達(dá)105億美元。1990年，外商直接投資額有60%左右流到該部門。2004年，盡管與往年相比外商直接投資的份額有所減少，但也有幾乎一半的外商直接投資流入該行業(yè)。與此同時(shí)，石油和重工業(yè)的出口猛增從1990年的6.1

53、7億美元上升到2004年的86億美元，僅次于輕工部門。</p><p><b>　　三、文獻(xiàn)回顧</b></p><p>　　關(guān)于外商直接投資與貿(mào)易關(guān)系的學(xué)術(shù)研究最初集中在這兩個(gè)方面是否是互補(bǔ)或替代品。使用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的赫克歇爾一俄林理論，蒙代爾（1957）表明，資本流動(dòng)可能是一個(gè)完美的代替貿(mào)易。弗農(nóng)（1966）的產(chǎn)品生命周期模型還提出了外商直接投資與貿(mào)易之間的替代關(guān)系。鄧寧

54、（1977）根據(jù)公司組織理論討論是否應(yīng)該通過(guò)本地出口或生產(chǎn)成立跨國(guó)公司的國(guó)外市場(chǎng)。在他的框架里出口和外商直接投資從根本上說(shuō)是替代品。然而，馬庫(kù)森（1983）認(rèn)為，如果不是基于外部因素相對(duì)差異，但在規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)和不同的生產(chǎn)技術(shù)的情況下，生產(chǎn)要素流動(dòng)也可引起貿(mào)易。</p><p>　　重力場(chǎng)模型已被應(yīng)用于各種貿(mào)易的實(shí)證研究。在除了國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值和距離方面外，安德森和凡科普（2001年）成立“分散指標(biāo)”，其中包括出口和進(jìn)口國(guó)

55、家的價(jià)格水平，相對(duì)差距和其他幾個(gè)假設(shè)（如具有共同的邊界，有一種共同的語(yǔ)言和屬于同一自由貿(mào)易區(qū)）應(yīng)用于傳統(tǒng)的重力場(chǎng)模型，可以產(chǎn)生重力方程式的很多性能。麥卡勒姆（1995）根據(jù)美國(guó)和加拿大之間的流動(dòng)用重力模型分析國(guó)家間貿(mào)易，并發(fā)現(xiàn)邊界效應(yīng)顯著。安德森和凡科普（2003）開(kāi)發(fā)出一種新的估算方法來(lái)糾正由于引力模型忽略變量產(chǎn)生的偏差的并重新估計(jì)加拿大和美國(guó)之間的雙邊貿(mào)易的邊界效應(yīng)。波特斯和康妮（1999）應(yīng)用重力方程的研究跨境資產(chǎn)流動(dòng)。艾肯格林，

56、李承晚和堂（2004）雇了一個(gè)引力模型來(lái)研究中國(guó)與其他亞洲國(guó)家之間的貿(mào)易關(guān)系。</p><p>　　四、出口和外商直接投資的重力模型</p><p>　　由于的數(shù)據(jù)的限制,我們無(wú)法區(qū)分出口的增長(zhǎng)是由于FDI直接還是間接地影響的。以下實(shí)證分析的主要關(guān)注的是外商直接投資對(duì)越南的出口影響。該分析框架標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的重力模型。根據(jù)重力模型,影響出口的首要因素是一個(gè)國(guó)家的國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值、出口需求是由進(jìn)口國(guó)的生產(chǎn)

57、總值所決定的。如果一個(gè)國(guó)家有大量出口外向型外商直接投資,將會(huì)超過(guò)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值在同樣水平的國(guó)家但是較少的外商直接投資。此外,如果外商直接投資的主要是服務(wù)于外商直接投資的來(lái)源國(guó)的出口市場(chǎng),外商直接投資將提高東道國(guó)對(duì)來(lái)源國(guó)地的出口額在沒(méi)有增加來(lái)源國(guó)的收入的情況下,因?yàn)橥馍讨苯油顿Y公司的出口產(chǎn)品將取代來(lái)源國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)同類產(chǎn)品。考慮外商直接投資可以促進(jìn)出口的所有可能的方式，外商直接投資是決定東道國(guó)對(duì)來(lái)源國(guó)家的出口因素之一。</p><

58、;p>　　借鑒傳統(tǒng)的重力模型的基本構(gòu)造,我們根據(jù)外商直接投資構(gòu)造了以下重力模型：</p><p>　　LnEXvjt=β0+β1Lnγvt+β2Lnγjt+β3LnFDIjv(t-1)+β4REvjt+β5dvj+β6δ</p><p>　　+β7FTAA+β8FTAUS+εvjt</p><p>　　在γ表示實(shí)際GDP，EXvjt表示從越南出口到其貿(mào)易伙伴的

59、出口額，j和FDIjv表示國(guó)家j的在越南直接投資。僅僅包括FDIjv傳統(tǒng)的重力模型將會(huì)使外商直接投資和國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值成為一種二元因果關(guān)系。為了避免這個(gè)問(wèn)題,我們用估計(jì)的FDIjv的滯后變量。RXVj代表越南盾和其貿(mào)易伙伴的貨幣的匯率。較高的RXVj意味著盾的貶值。dVj是越南與其貿(mào)易伙伴的距離。在預(yù)測(cè)估計(jì)時(shí)，我們簡(jiǎn)單地使用河內(nèi)和越南的貿(mào)易伙伴的首都之間的距離。δj是測(cè)試邊際交易的效果的虛擬變量。如果貿(mào)易伙伴和越南有共同邊界它等于1。越南已

60、經(jīng)和東盟國(guó)家,美國(guó)和日本已經(jīng)簽署了一項(xiàng)自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定。在理論上,這將促進(jìn)自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定的雙邊貿(mào)易。為了控制自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定的影響,兩個(gè)虛擬變量FTAA和FTAUS都包含在模型中。第一個(gè)是用來(lái)驗(yàn)證越南和其它一些東盟國(guó)家之間自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定的效果。第二個(gè)是用于越南和美國(guó)之間的自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定。這兩個(gè)虛擬變量值為1,當(dāng)越南加入自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定后,反之則是0。日本和越南在2004年簽署了的自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定,這是案例中的最后一年。因此,我們不考慮日本和越南的自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定

61、的效果。</p><p>　　越南財(cái)政部登記的外商直接投資數(shù)據(jù)是以規(guī)劃和投資的基礎(chǔ)的項(xiàng)目，而不是實(shí)際利用的外商直接投資。估計(jì)在越南實(shí)際利用外商直接投資的國(guó)家，根據(jù)我們搜索信息和1988年以來(lái)規(guī)劃和投資部共有5,919個(gè)核準(zhǔn)狀態(tài)外商直接投資項(xiàng)目?；谶@些項(xiàng)目中信息，我們做了一個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)集合，其中包括越南在1990年至2004年間每年實(shí)際利用23個(gè)主要貿(mào)易伙伴的外商直接投資。2004年，這23個(gè)貿(mào)易伙伴，合計(jì)共占越南實(shí)際

62、利用的外商直接投資的94.6%，進(jìn)口額的83.9%和出口額的84.6%。</p><p>　　我們根據(jù)加權(quán)回歸和隨機(jī)影響來(lái)估計(jì)模型。關(guān)于預(yù)測(cè)該模型的隨機(jī)效應(yīng)，外商直接投資系數(shù)為0.13和1%的顯著，這表明外商直接投資對(duì)越南做出了重大貢獻(xiàn)，增加國(guó)家的出口額，而且出口額到較大的國(guó)家在越南投資將會(huì)更多。在回歸模型中，出口和外商直接投資是以對(duì)數(shù)的形式，外商直接投資系數(shù)度量外商直接投資的出口彈性。具體而言，外國(guó)直接投資流入

63、增加1%將增加對(duì)外商直接投資來(lái)源國(guó)0.13%的出口額。</p><p><b>　　五、結(jié)論與建議</b></p><p>　　繼改革的實(shí)施，越南的經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入了持續(xù)的高增長(zhǎng)。自由貿(mào)易和外商直接投資大大提高了該國(guó)的出口和外商直接投資的流入。使用一個(gè)擴(kuò)展的重力性模型，本文探討越南的外商直接投資推動(dòng)越南出口的程度的大小。該分析是基于從1990年至2004年越南對(duì)23個(gè)外商直接

64、投資的來(lái)源國(guó)的出口額。作者估計(jì)在這項(xiàng)研究中實(shí)際吸收的外商直接投資自1988年來(lái)有5919項(xiàng)目。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明，越南對(duì)外商直接投資的來(lái)源國(guó)的出口大幅提高，增加1%的外商直接投資預(yù)期會(huì)增加對(duì)外商直接投資來(lái)源國(guó)0.13%的出口。</p><p>　　此外，實(shí)證分析發(fā)現(xiàn)，越南盾的貶值，其貿(mào)易國(guó)家和該國(guó)的收入也是決定出口很重要的因素。值得一提的是，越南國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的出口彈性為3.21，遠(yuǎn)高于其貿(mào)易伙伴的收入，這表明越來(lái)越強(qiáng)的

65、出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力和越南的產(chǎn)品競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力提高是其出口的關(guān)鍵。我們沒(méi)有發(fā)現(xiàn)任何證據(jù)證明與其他東盟國(guó)家簽訂自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定可以促進(jìn)這些國(guó)家出口。然而，實(shí)證結(jié)果表明，與美國(guó)簽訂自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定顯著改善越南對(duì)美國(guó)出口。</p><p>　　截至目前，在越南官方公布的外商直接投資數(shù)據(jù)都是被核準(zhǔn)的項(xiàng)目，而不是實(shí)際引進(jìn)的。這些數(shù)據(jù)不能被用來(lái)作為在該國(guó)的外商直接投資活動(dòng)的準(zhǔn)確數(shù)值。要嚴(yán)格評(píng)估外商直接投資對(duì)越南經(jīng)濟(jì)的貢獻(xiàn)和影響，必須有一個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)集合，以