艦船運動的拓撲預測模型.pdf

1、分類弓fJlIilIIIIIIIHIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIY1436080理學碩士學位論文g＆：——編日：——艦船運動的拓撲預測模型碩士研究生指導教師學科、專業(yè)趙爽沈繼紅教授應用數(shù)學哈爾濱I程大學2008年4月哈爾濱T程大學碩十學位論文ABSTRACTTheship，especiallyaircraftcarrier，called‘theoverlordofthesea’innavalwarfareAirc

2、raftcarrierisalargescalesurfaceship，whichadoptscarrierbasedaircraftsasmajorcombatweapons，anditCallnotonlyprotectthesecurityofcountry，butalsoexertmilitarypressureandoperationsinsteadofdependingonthepowerofthelocalairportT

3、herefore，thereisimportantpracticalsignificanceintheresearchofpredictionofshipmotionInfluencedbyseawavesandsomeotherfactors，thedataofshipmotionarecharacterizedbybeingrandomandnonlineartimevarying，andGreysystemtheoryhasits

4、uniquefeatureinthestudyofnonlinearsystemsInthispaper，TopologypredictionmodelofGreysystermpredictionisintroducedintotheshipmotionpredictionforthefirsttime，andpredictsthepitchinganglesofshipmotionThis#perincludes：1Topology

5、predictionisthedatawaveformpredictionofsystembehaviorcharacteristicsduringaperiodoftimeGreytopologypredictionmodelisnotjustaGM(1，1)model，butaGM(1，1)modelgroupInthegroup，amodelhasathresholdvalue，bywhichpredictsthenextoneo

6、rmoremomentscorrespondingtoeachthresholdvalueandpredictstheoveralltrendConsequently，itCansimulatepredictionwiththeoriginalgivendata2Amongthepitchinganglesofshipmotion，therearetwocharacteristics：therearemoredifferencesand

7、frequentchangesinthepitchingangledata；theGM(1，1)modelislimitedtoforecasttheincreaseofmonotonousseriesBasedontheabovetwoones，constructGreytopologypredictionmodelforsimulatingpredictionofthepitchingangles，andtheresultsshow

8、thatGreytopologypredictionmodelisobviouslysuperiortoGM(1，1)model3Accordingtothenumericalexperimentanalysisofseveralgroupsofdifferentdatatheresultsoftheanalysisshowthatthemainelementwhichmayproducethelargererrorinpredicti