中國(guó)電力與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系的實(shí)證研究.pdf

1、華北電力大學(xué)（北京）碩士學(xué)位論文中國(guó)電力與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系的實(shí)證研究姓名：趙四化申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別：碩士專業(yè)：技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)及管理指導(dǎo)教師：何永秀20060301華北電力大學(xué)碩十學(xué)位論文摘要本論文基于標(biāo)準(zhǔn)Granger因果檢驗(yàn)?zāi)Ｐ?、綜合誤差矯正模型，先選取單因素模型對(duì)我國(guó)電力與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系在總量、分產(chǎn)業(yè)、分部門(mén)、分地區(qū)、地區(qū)分產(chǎn)業(yè)進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)的分析；然后采用多因素模型，引入電力投資、非電力投資、用電量、人力資本等多變量對(duì)電力和經(jīng)濟(jì)的關(guān)系做進(jìn)一步分析，得出

2、了電力與經(jīng)濟(jì)因果關(guān)系的方向、影響程度的大小及長(zhǎng)、短期關(guān)系，為我國(guó)在電力短缺和能源資源稀缺及新的電力市場(chǎng)條件下，做好電源和電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃與建設(shè)工作，做好產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整以促進(jìn)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供科學(xué)理論依據(jù)。關(guān)鍵詞：電力，經(jīng)濟(jì)，因果關(guān)系，誤差修正模型，向量誤差修正模型ABSTRACTTheGrangerCausality(GC)andtheErrorCorrectionModel(ECM)techniquesareappliedtoanalyz

3、etherelationshipbetweenelectricityconsumptionandtheChineseeconomyThesinglefactormodelisselectedfirstandthesystematicanalysisismadeinthetotalquantityinseparateindustriesanddepartments，andindifferentindustrieswithseparater

4、egionsThenthemultifactorsmodelisadoptedbyintroducingthemultivariable，suchas，theelectricpowerinvestment，nonelectricpowerinvestment，electricityconsumptionandmanpowercapitaltomakefurtheranalysis，whichobtaineddirection，degre

5、e，theshort，andthelongtermrelationbetweentheelectricpowerandtheeconomyWithpowerandresourcesshortages，theaboveconclusionssupplythebasisinscienceandtheoryfortheregulationandconstructionofpowerandnetworks，andfortheindustryst

6、ructureadjustmenttoaccelerateeconomicsustainabledevelopmentofChineseeconomyZhaoSihua(TechnologicalEconomicsandManagement)DirectedbyprofHeYongxiuKEYWORDSelectricpower，economy，causality，errorcorrectionmodel，vectorerrorcorr