mba論文配電網(wǎng)運(yùn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的研究pdf

1、論文題目：配電網(wǎng)運(yùn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的研究 專(zhuān) 業(yè)：電力系統(tǒng)及其自動(dòng)化 碩 士 生：韓 磊 （簽名） 指導(dǎo)教師：劉 健 （簽名） 摘 要 為了對(duì)運(yùn)行中配電用戶的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其緊迫性進(jìn)行評(píng)估，建議了一種面向用戶的配電網(wǎng)運(yùn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估方法。 首先，提出了一種簡(jiǎn)化的元件時(shí)變停運(yùn)模型。其次，在配電網(wǎng)的簡(jiǎn)化模型下，定義用戶的負(fù)荷不確定性模型，并通過(guò)負(fù)荷計(jì)算得出區(qū)域與節(jié)點(diǎn)負(fù)荷。在上述基礎(chǔ)上，該評(píng)估方法將用戶作為評(píng)估對(duì)象，通

2、過(guò)對(duì)運(yùn)行中的配電網(wǎng)模擬預(yù)想故障下的負(fù)荷轉(zhuǎn)移，分析用戶所受故障損失，定義了考慮負(fù)荷不確定性的用戶期望停電概率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)、用戶期望停電時(shí)間風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)、用戶期望電量損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)，并且結(jié)合系統(tǒng)期望停電用戶數(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)體現(xiàn)預(yù)想故障對(duì)系統(tǒng)整體的影響。為了反映過(guò)負(fù)荷的影響，定義了配電網(wǎng)過(guò)負(fù)荷風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)。 根據(jù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)對(duì)影響配電網(wǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的因素進(jìn)行分析，針對(duì)不同的影響因素提出相應(yīng)防范措施。分析了一種基于最小化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的配電網(wǎng)絡(luò)重構(gòu)方法進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)防控制。在比較預(yù)防控制執(zhí)

3、行時(shí)間與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)來(lái)臨時(shí)間的基礎(chǔ)上，建立了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)緊迫性等級(jí)，用以反映確保預(yù)防控制措施能夠有效實(shí)施的時(shí)機(jī)。 采用所建議方法對(duì) IEEE 3 饋線配電系統(tǒng)圖與某 27 節(jié)點(diǎn)配電系統(tǒng)圖對(duì)進(jìn)行了算例分析，結(jié)果表明該方法是可行、有效的，可為運(yùn)行人員提供決策依據(jù)。 關(guān) 鍵 詞：配電網(wǎng)；配電自動(dòng)化；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估；緊迫性；面向用戶 研究類(lèi)型：應(yīng)用研究 Subject ：The operational risk Assessment for Dist

4、ribution Grids Specialty ：Power System and Automation Name ：Han lei （Signature） Instructor ：Liu Jian （Signature） ABSTRACT To evaluate the customer oriented risk and the urgency of preventive con

5、trol in the operation of distribution networks, a new approach of risk assessment is proposed. For operational risk assessment, first of all, this paper presents a simplified Outage time- varying

6、 model, and obtains the area and node load through the load calculation. Based on the above, customers are regarded as the objects of the evaluation. Through simulating the load transferring

7、in case of various faults occur, the influence on the customers is analyzed. A series of customer oriented risk indices considering load variation are proposed, including the customer expected

8、outage probability、the customer expected interruption duration and the customer expected electricity consumption loss. The system expected interruption index is used to indicate the influence on the

9、 whole distribution network. To account for the effects of overloads, an overload risk indicator is established. It briefly analysis the risk factors affecting the distribution network based on

10、 risk indicators and processes factors for different. It proposes a method of distribution network reconfiguration based on minimizing the risk to prevention and control. The execution time of pr

11、eventive control is compared with the risk coming time which is forecasted, the urgency levels of preventive control are defined to indicate the opportunity for an effective preventive control.

12、The IEEE 3 feeder distribution system and the 27 feeder distribution system are used as two examples to illustrate the proposed method in detailed showing its feasibility and effectiveness. Key